Winter Falling: Steam EA Postmortem

How I worked for 6 years to earn $100k

Hello, I'm Arek. Solo developer of Winter Falling: Battle Tactics. [LINK]

6 years ago, to the day, I started working on a massive project and I didn’t know it.

Postmortems are usually done a month after launch and they’re either praising or lamenting the launch figures. This will be more in-depth. 2.5 years after EA launch I can analyse the numbers in the grand scheme of things.

I'll tell you how I prepared for Early Access, how it went, how I earned some money and how I failed.

TL;DR Stats

Development Start: 8 May 2019
EA Release: 8 November 2022
Lifetime units: Over 13k
Lifetime revenue: Over $100k
Average time played: Around 3 hours
Wishlists at EA release: 5190
Units returned: 12%
Development time: 6 years, started with 2 web prototypes.
Was it a success: Depends.
Compared to industry standards - failure.
For me - definitely a success. Way bigger than I deserve. But a competent developer without mental issues could get 10 times better figures than me.

What is Winter Falling: Battle Tactics?

A medieval battle simulator wrapped in a fantasy tortilla served with a side dish of RPG campaign. Completely unrealistic, but focused on fun and theme. Imagine you’re managing a mercenary company in your favourite fantasy world from your younger days.

Take battle mechanics from Total War, FTL and mash them up with vibes from 90s fantasy like Willow, Discworld and Warhammer: Shadow of the Horned Rat.

Now you can guess how old I am!

How it started?

It’s 2019, before the war, before the pandemic. With my friends at 7A Games we’ve just published Mars Power Industries [LINK] so I have time and energy for a new fun project.

So I begin working on another story puzzle game.

(This video has no audio, but here’s one of the music tracks, to get the vibe)

I’m happily exploring this strange pink-tinted world.
But then a major cultural event happened…

You’ve probably heard of it.

Enter Prototype 1

Everyone is excited about the final season of the Game of Thrones TV show.

When I see the battle of Winterfell it strikes me. This was bad. It could be done a lot better. People on the internet argue and complain about this battle. Well, I can make an interactive battle. The joke being that the most climactic and the most anticipated battle in the show was poorly thought out.

The premise is simple:
Can you defend Winterfell better than the screenwriters?

This video [LINK] by Invicta gives me the push to actually create the game. I’ve been stalking in the GoT fandom for a while, but now I see people like discussing these wild theories, someone might enjoy this game!

Onwards to prototyping!

I know Unity and I have been making flash/web games for 10 years so this is simple and enjoyable. Progress every day. Add a new unit, make a mess in the code, change the gameplay in interesting ways. Pleasant. There’s probably a lesson here to create things you’re personally excited about. But I’m not a marketing guru to sell this advice.

Takes me 3 months to create a fully-playable web game.
To avoid copyright issues I call it - Winter Falling. And you can still play it! [LINK].

The result is fun for a small web game!

August 1st 2019, I hit “Publish”.
Nobody cares about the game. I make a couple posts on reddit and imgur.
Mixed results. Some like it, some scream SELF-ADVERTISING!!! because you’re supposed to regurgitate internet slop, not create anything on your own.

Imagine my surprise when I see a PCGamer article about the game!

Let’s see the results on itch.io analytics...

Well, this thing has potential. (Yes, it’s earned a total of $10)
I can devote my full-time attention to Winter Falling, why not? It’s proved to be an interesting idea. Certainly better than any of my other ideas. Maybe I can make some money here? And I know how it sounds. Listen, let’s be honest here. It’s a cute story about a random guy making games for fun and stumbling into success, but I’ve gotta eat. The way indie developers make money is by… jumping on bandwagons.
No one cares about a random battle simulator. But people care about a Winterfell battle simulator when Game of Thrones is a trending topic.
There’s a bigger psychological thread here about interacting with your own culture, but that’s another time.

Bandwagons are powerful. Take a look at Vampire Survivors or Balatro clones. Find a bandwagon you’re personally excited about and you’re 90% guaranteed some kind of success. Unless your art sucks. Mine is passable.

Prototype 2

Time for a new prototype. Winter Falling: Price of Life [LINK] .

A proof-of-concept. The goal is to make a small, fun game that can stand on its own. Without any Game of Thrones references. More management, more battles, more in-depth. The game starts to take shape, but…

Problems

I can’t code AI. It’s too difficult and time-consuming. The annoying part is this game needs AI behaviours that are a bit more advanced than youtube tutorials can teach. So I decide to make it a feature. You’re always defending. AI gets a simple A* implementation to always reach you. Worked for the first game, why not now?

Because of the messy Prototype 1 code I have to rewrite almost everything from scratch. I spend a long time figuring out quirks, unsure what direction I want to go.

Figuring out the interface takes me a long time. There are two forces fighting inside. Either go all-in on original / crazy art or stay grounded / boring. Eventually I settle on a version that doesn’t hurt my eyes.

Big element - inside the game I include a link to the Steam page to gather wishlists. My plan is to quickly release the full game and come back to Spin Spy. So I make a simple Steam page, don’t care too much. And you can tell.

The development takes 9 months.
I make 12 battles with a simple progression system and devote most time to polish.
There’s a lot of work here, even though the game is very minimalist.
One thing people will not tell you is that making things from scratch takes time. Double that if you want it nicely polished!
But that’s the price for not using Unit Asset Store stuff.

May 20th 2020 I upload it to itch.io.
Take a guess, does it do better than the joke game?

What’s the result?

Wishlists accumulated: 520.

Chris Zukowski on his blog recently talked about this kind of development. [LINK].
Many game developers have chosen this route. You must get your audience from somewhere. It might be itch.io , ads on social media, or influencers.

The result here is a lot worse than the Game of Thrones joke game. Of course. But it’s okay. People like this prototype. I’ll finish the full game in the next 6 months and it’s done.

What could go wrong?

Final Version - Preparing for Early Access

It takes me another 3 years to prepare the game for public release. From the start of the pandemic to the Russian invasion. Why so long? I start from scratch because the code in the prototype 2 is a mess. I need a fresh codebase. Can you find the common thread here?

The more I work the more I doubt myself. How far into realism and management should I go? How heavy with numbers the game should be? Is this a wargame like many strategy games where you need 2 hours of tutorials to play the game? Do you need at least 6 hours to discover the fun? Is this an autobattler?

There are obvious mechanical constraints created by the visual representation. I can’t do Total War formations with simple physical blocks because of collisions.

I really want to recreate Shadow of the Horned Rat, but that game has aged poorly. Then I want to have a simple roguelike campaign like FTL, but it doesn’t feel right.

So I’m running in circles. Changing things, experimenting for so long that the people who joined the game discord forgot about the game. My money is running out. I am developing Winter Falling full-time now. I know I have a deadline by which I will simply starve, but I just want to bring this to a finish line. See what happens then.

I have an ace up my sleeve though…
The steam page is still gathering wishlists!
2-3 wishlists per day. Simply because it’s up.
There’s even a massive spike out of nowhere! Nookrium made a video [LINK] at some point, but I was too busy to even notice.

Wishlists accumulated over time: 3403.
How many of these are dead wishlists? By industry standard 20% should convert to sales. Even if only 10% convert, this gives me 350 copies so enough to survive a month looking for new freelance jobs.

Steam Next Fest

The festival is coming up in October, that’s a good moment to release the demo.

The problem is that I spend all my time making the game. I haven’t even tried spreading the word about the game. Zero effort on marketing assets. The Steam page still looks very simple, but it seems people don’t mind.

I spend the last money I have on marketing, which goes nowhere. At this moment I have less than $200 in cash for groceries.

Winter Falling Demo is received well!
It gets more than 1 hour of playtime on average. Which is better than Steam’s average.

I’m not sure what the second spike is. Probably a video, but I was too busy fixing bugs and preparing the launch to notice.

Wishlists from the festival: 1787.
Wishlists at launch: 5190.

Early Access Launch

November 9th 2022. A month after Steam Next Fest.

I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves, it’s fascinating that a youtube video from Splattercat dwarfs the launch day. [LINK]

How’s the Long Tail?

Well, bad.
It really is all about Steam sales and festivals. Spikes in player count correspond to new videos or major updates.

Recently a big update landed!

I can see the uptick! It’s a small success! Nothing compared to the launch, but the second biggest moment in history.

What Went Right

1. Youtube videos.

   Winter Falling would probably lay dead in the water if it wasn’t for content creators who stumbled upon the game. Either on Steam Next Fest or on itch.io. Me, personally, I sent about 10 emails on launch day and that’s all the marketing I did. Don’t know if anybody read them. I know that Splattercat responded. Over the next months many content creators made videos, but I’ll always remember the first videos made by esty8nine, Retromation, Nookrium and Splattercat. I’m extremely grateful!

2. Putting the Steam page up early

   Gathers wishlists from youtube videos. Steam also suggests the game to Steam users, that’s an incredible algorithm, way better than Google or Apple.

3. Web prototypes done quick.
   3 months for a polished game is okay. Could be even faster. This rapid prototyping allowed me to test MANY ideas and keep my excitement up. The important lesson is to know when to abandon the prototype and how to start fresh. Why do I complain about my code then? Usually because I made the system one way, spent a long time there making it stable and expandable, then it turns out I need a completely different system. That’s exactly what prototypes are for!

4. Web prototypes knew their audience.
   First was Game of Thrones fandom, then historical battle channels, then Battle Brothers fandom. Right now Winter Falling is known as a mix of Total War and Battle Brothers. The game would be dead if I hadn’t pivoted. Nobody in their right mind would be playing a Game of Thrones fanfic in 2025.

5. Weekly updates.
   For a while after release I could sustain regular updates. Sounds nice, but I am alone. How much can I do in a week? I managed to release some content and some features that the community wanted. Players were surprised that they offer feedback on Monday and on Friday there’s a new build implementing their ideas. Responsiveness is rare, it seems.

6. Polishing art.
   The game art went through A LOT of iterations. Looking back on it it’s clear where I made the right choice and what was a mistake. I’m glad I kept improving art. I’m not a good artist, I just try a lot. Actually, the same thing applies to my code and sound.

7. Determination

   Funny element that. I wake up, I work on the game. I don’t think about the alternatives, because that’s what I’ve been doing last year and that’s what I want to do. But sometimes people are surprised when I say I’ve been working on the same game for 6 years. It would be nice to start a new game, but this one’s not finished yet, I must bring it to the finish line. Cycles are really strange when you start noticing them. There’s a new update, new players, new modders excited to play with the system. Couple months fly by, they’re gone. Sometimes there are months when nothing happens and I’m completely alone. But then there’s a new wave of new names.

   I don’t know how this happens, but I’ve seen many developers abandon projects where all they needed was more determination. Usually they hit a brick wall where they need to learn new skills and improve, but instead they run.
   I’m guilty here as well. Took me 10 years of my career to understand that you need impressive skills to make an impressive game.

What Went Wrong

1. Keymailer and marketing scams.
   I paid for a couple of these promotional services, complete waste of money. Nothing happened. The keys I provided for free were 99% stolen.
   Won’t be using these in the future.

2. Licensed music problems.
   I bought a license for game music from stock composers. In theory, this means it’s completely okay to use in youtube videos etc. In practice, youtube videos will get a copyright strike automatically and then when you contest it you can show your license and maybe things work out. Huge problem. I’m really sorry this happened to youtubers who tried to help me like Splattercat.
   New music is currently being composed, for the time being I implemented an optional Streamer Mode which disabled licensed music…

3. Single playthrough.

   I prepared a single campaign that takes 3-4 hours to complete. That’s nice for a demo, but not for the full game. Why would you replay the same story? Nobody cares when I add new content like units, or new systems like experience. I need to prepare a new campaign just to showcase new content. Games need replayability if they’re in Early Access.

4. I’m scared of posting online.

   Like every developer I’m terrified by the prospect of marketing. But it gets worse. Is my work worth posting? Every time I start working on new marketing materials I’m scared there’s nothing impressive here, why would anyone care?
   This is actually a bigger psychological issues I’m working through.

5. Didn’t learn the skills I wanted, because of rushing

   Wanted to improve my 2D art. Landscapes, characters. Instead I got sucked in jumping from task to task. I’m late. I’m behind schedule. Promised X last month! Can’t take weekends off. I need to rush!
   Writing suffered most. On one hand there are things I wanted to write, but they made no sense in this form. This is not a visual novel. Don’t bore players who only want tactics! I created little story content, because I was constantly bouncing around. Always thinking “I need to finish this ASAP and start that, no time to learn.”

6. Long development…

   1. Indecisiveness, fear of making the wrong step.
      People often said "this game is right up my alley". Great. But I don’t know that alley. Often times, I don’t even know what city I’m in. The design was changing very often and every controversial piece of feedback destroyed my process. Instead of committing to a solution I was always trying to accommodate all feedback. Always trying to make EVERYONE happy. Which is impossible and it really ruins your psyche.

   2. Nostalgia clinging
      Warhammer: Shadow of the Horned Rat has a nice long linear campaign. Awesome for year 1999. Less so for 2025. There were parts of my vision which made no sense, but I really wanted to incorporate them. After 2 years in Early Access I realized how stupid I was and I started working on things people actually wanted from a game like this.

7. Health problems. Maybe stress caused back problems?
   This is great.
   Imagine working 3 hours a day and spending the rest in agonizing pain. I got used to it, somehow. You work from 9 to 12 and then you must lay down. Maybe a walk will help a little and you’ll get additional 2 hours of sitting time.
   Here’s the kicker:
   It also hurts when I’m standing.
   December 2023, one year into Early Access my back started hurting. I remove the pain from one spot with expensive physical therapy and medication. Then it comes back in another spot along my spine. Eventually it settles in my mid-back below shoulder plates. One strand of muscles near the spine is aching. What is it?
   Nobody knows.
   It shouldn’t hurt. Maybe my collapsed chest does something to the muscles? Many scans and doctor visits later I’m still lost. There is another story here about doctors not caring, but I won’t bore you. Great experience paying for both private and public health insurance just to be treated like an annoying fly. NEXT!

   More than a year of very little development. The work I did under the influence of the medication was disgusting. You can’t think straight when you’re in pain.
   What’s worse is I spend a lot of my income on private healthcare…
   
   As I’m writing this in May 2025 I managed to alleviate some pain. Still working on it. For some reason, at some point, I started using back muscles to breathe which also exacerbated the pain, but I fixed that.
   Now there are usually 2-3 pain-free day in a week. Happy for that. I’m convinced this is due to bad posture and stress. I only hope I can get a few more pain-free days.

Money Talk

$100k Steam revenue means I received around $60k to my bank account, after Steam fees, returns and US taxes.

After all taxes it's around $35k disposable income over 3 years. $1k for each month to pay bills and eat. (If my math is correct).
Why so little?
In Poland we pay tax for the privilege of operating a business. $500 monthly, doesn't matter if you have any income or not. This is horrible if you're making a game without generating any income, like 50% of my time. You have one month with $3k income and the rest of the year is empty, working on the game and waiting for another big sale.

I can continue the development because my lifestyle is very much ascetic. But I need freelance jobs. If you need a Unity programmer, 2D artist, or even a writer, please think of me!

Discovering the Point

One winter evening I’m designing a new system on paper, lying on the floor, good for my back. Let’s fire up my fireplace to warm up. Campaign music is blasting. Real nice atmosphere. Cosy.
For a small break let’s watch Shut Up & Sit Down’s review of Too Many Bones.

And I feel something.

What’s this?

I can feel the fun of entertaining low fantasy. Remember feeling this many years ago with Warhammer, as a child. Now that’s the vibe I want to re-create with Winter Falling! Here’s an opportunity to create something great. I can’t accomplish it with nostalgia. But I know what things or features I would’ve loved to see as a kid.

Being stuck in the trenches for months, working on code or drawing content, I forget about the fun in the game. I can get excited about a new feature, but playing my 2596th hour isn’t exciting… Yet, tremendous satisfaction watching other people play and feeling the fun again!
Embarrassing as hell too.

The development ahead is based on my internal feelings now, without obsessing what the market niches would prefer. Because I know what the client inside of me wants. Judging by the positive feedback my new roadmap got, I believe this is the best way forward!

Next time I’ll write about issues in development and how marketing can help.
Speaking to other developers I’ve realized I might have some knowledge to share.

Thank you,
Arek